Comparative Analysis of Turkey’s Crisis

[JW: A very interesting detailed discussion by Andrew Arato of Turkey’s Constitution, parliament and court system as these play a role in the recent crisis (with a case before the Constitutional Court that may bring down the elected government). Arato makes comparisons with India, Germany and Central Europe. His main point is that all sides share the blame for the crisis — the ruling AK Party for its heedless majoritarianism and the court for its obstructionism, but that the reform process cannot be stopped.]

An excerpt:

We should be deeply worried about Turkey’s unfolding constitutional crisis, that could end in many things: the continuation and even conclusion of the long democratic transition; military coup with entirely uncertain consequences; or, in between them an unproductive stalemate….

The makers of [Turkey’s] Constitution of 1982 established a dual, semi authoritarian or semi democratic state, with important reserves of power outside the constitution. Starting with the elections of 1983, and then constitutional changes already in 1987 Turgut Özal managed to expand the democratic dimension, leading to a great reform process from 1995 to 2004, that in several rounds that involved the consensual participation of all parliamentary political parties, managed to significantly but by no means completely constitutionalize political powers in the system. Today people stress several military and indeed judicial interventions in this period, that we can see only managed to slow down the rate of change, exclude parties that would reappear in new forms and under new names, but nevertheless confirming the existence of important political centers that could continue to act outside all democratic accountability and constitutional restraints. From 2000-2001 especially, the Turkish parties and governments were under increasing European pressure to eliminate these authoritarian residues…

…there is every reason to think that if the party is not closed, the road of the democratic transformation could be re-opened if, as is very likely, a chastened AKP decided to follow other than majoritarian methods…. The Constitutional Court will remain an important actor in any consensual process, and it makes no sense to vilify it whatever anyone may think or imagine about some of the members and their allegiances. Today that body is in the position to make the greatest contribution to the kind of legal and legitimate process of constitution making I have mind by dismissing the charges against the AKP and its leaders.

(for the full essay, click here)

Does The Military Support Ergenekon Arrests?

On Tuesday, 23 people, including three former army commanders, a journalist and the leader of a business group, were detained in operations in the cities of Ankara, Istanbul, Antalya, Erzurum and Trabzon as part of an investigation into a powerful and illegal organization suspected of plotting to overthrow the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) government….

The detainees include retired Gen. Sener Eruygur, former head of the paramilitary gendarmerie forces and currently the head of the secularist Atatürkist Thought Association (ADD), named after the founder of the Turkish Republic, Mustafa Kemal Atatürk. Eruygur was a key figure in diaries of former Adm. Özden Örnek which revealed plans by generals to stage coups against the AK Party government in 2004 and 2005.

Eruygur, retired Gen. Hursit Tolon, retired Gen. Ilker Güven, Ankara Chamber of Commerce (ATO) Chairman Sinan Aygün and the Ankara bureau chief of the radically secularist Cumhuriyet daily Mustafa Balbay were among those taken into police custody early in the morning hours of Tuesday.

Former Gendarmerie General Command Intelligence Department head Levent Ersöz, who was reported to be in Russia, and former AK Party deputy Turhan Cömez, who is currently in London, are also wanted as suspects in the Ergenekon case.

The military has not raised any public objections to the Ergenekon operation despite the involvement of former generals, a sign that the military’s command line is opposed to plans for a coup and that it is ready to cooperate with the civilian judiciary when it takes action against those members of the military who were trying to engineer a coup…. (more…)

The Man Some Love To Hate Wins A Poll

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Prospect Magazine has announced that Fethullah Gülen, the leader of an influential Turkey-based global Sufi-oriented Islamic movement, has won the international poll to choose the World’s Most Influential Intellectual. While Gülen and his ideas are widely admired, he also is feared and hated by some in Turkey who see his enormous reach and publishing empire and his well-educated and well-organized followers as threats to Turkey’s secular state and society. The position of women outside the center of power in the Gülen community stands in contrast to Gülen’s teachings about the equality of women.

Here are the Top 10 Influential Intellectuals (for the rest, click here):

1 Fethullah Gülen
2 Muhammad Yunus
3 Yusuf Al-Qaradawi
4 Orhan Pamuk
5 Aitzaz Ahsan
6 Amr Khaled
7 Abdolkarim Soroush
8 Tariq Ramadan
9 Mahmood Mamdani
10 Shirin Ebadi

The Prospect calls Gülen a “modern Ottoman” and his approach “Islam-Lite”:

[He] promotes an open brand of Islamic thought and… is preoccupied with modern science… Unusually for a pious intellectual, he and his movement are at home with technology, markets and multinational business, and especially with modern communications and public relations—which, like a modern televangelist, he uses to attract converts. Like a western celebrity, he carefully manages his public exposure—mostly by restricting interviews to those he can trust.

Many of his converts come from Turkey’s aspirational middle class. As religious freedom comes, falteringly, to Turkey, Gülen reassures his followers that they can combine the statist-nationalist beliefs of Atatürk’s republic with a traditional but flexible Islamic faith. He also reconnects the provincial middle class with the Ottoman traditions that had been caricatured as theocratic by Atatürk and his “Kemalist” heirs. Oliver Leaman, a leading scholar of Islamic philosophy, says that Gülen’s ideas are a product of Turkish history, especially the end of the Ottoman empire and the birth of the republic. He calls Gülen’s approach “Islam-lite.”

(for the essay on Gülen, click here.)

Prospect admits that the election of Gülen was the result of active organization of votes by his supporters and the sympathetic Zaman Newspaper:

On 1st May, Zaman—the highest-selling newspaper in Turkey, with a circulation of over 700,000 and a string of international editions—ran a story on its front page alerting its readership to the appearance of Gülen on the Prospect/FP list, and to the fact that we were inviting people to vote. Zaman is known to be close to the Gülen movement, and over the coming weeks the paper made regular reference to the cleric’s appearance on our list. The poll was also noted in other Turkish newspapers, as well as on every single Gülen website, official and unofficial, we were able to find.

The efficiency and discipline of the Fethullahci is legendary—so in retrospect, for them, a poll like ours was simple to hijack. The temptation for Gülen’s followers to elevate their man to the top of a poll organised by two influential western magazines will have been a strong one. In one respect, then, Gülen’s crushing win tells us little about what the world thinks about its intellectuals; it merely exhibits the organisational ability of one movement’s followers. On the other hand, perhaps we can see through Gülen’s victory the emergence of a new kind of intellectual—one whose influence is expressed through a personal network, aided by the internet, rather than publications or institutions.

(Click here for the full essay, “How Gülen Triumphed)

More Ergenekon Arrests

Turkish police have detained two retired generals, a leading businessman and a senior journalist, hours ahead of the first hearing in a closure case against the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party).

The Anatolia news agency reported that said Ankara Chamber of Commerce (ATO) Chairman Sinan Aygün and the former head of the gendarmerie forces, retired Gen. Sener Eruygur, were among those detained. Retired Gen. Hursit Tolon and journalist Mustafa Balbay, the Ankara representative of the staunchly secular Cumhuriyet daily, are also said to be in custody.

Turkish media reports suggest the sweep is linked to a probe into a shadowy ultra-nationalist, hard-line secularist group, known as Ergenekon, which has been accused of seeking to engineer a coup against the government. Dozens of people had previously been detained for suspected links to the group, including retired army officers. The military — which has repeatedly criticized the government and considers itself the guardian of Turkey’s secular system — has denied any links to the group.

(for full article, click here)

The Common Sense Movement

 

The Common Sense Movement, a platform bringing together civil society [organizations], opinion leaders, journalists, academics, writers and politicians from different segments of society, held its first meeting opposing coup attempts and anti-democratic practices in Turkey in the eastern province of Malatya on Saturday….

[Zaman newspaper estimates 50,000 attended.]

The Common Sense Movement will continue its string of meetings in the days ahead, with gatherings planned in different cities across the country. Saturday’s meeting came only one week after a similar gathering in Istanbul, where thousands rallied in protest of recent coup attempts.

(click for the rest of article)

Last Best Chance for Cyprus

Nicosia, Cyprus

Hugh Pope in the Wall Street Journal (For full article, click here):  

Nobody has ever lost money betting on the failure of the Cyprus peace process. But this year, the best chance in decades to end this conflict has quietly crept up on local and international policy makers, and the European Union now has one last opportunity to undo past mistakes.

The Ataturk Solstice

unknown.jpegArticle by Mustafa Akyol (for full article, click here):

The people of Damal, a district of the eastern city of Ardahan, couldn’t have imagined that their modest and destitute town would attract droves of visitors and become the focus of the Turkish media. But that is exactly what happened in the past few years with the “Atatürk miracle” discovered on the face of the Karada? heights. Apparently, the silhouette of Turkey’s revered founder appears on the shadow that falls on these heights between June 15 and July 5. And thousands of Atatürk lovers, including military officers, bureaucrats and urban professionals, visit the region in order to observe this fascinating solstice.

Soccer Mania

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After three amazing comebacks to reach the semifinals, Turkey is wild with rejoicing and hope. Two consecutive wins would make Turkey the Euro 2008 champion. But first the Turks have to clear the German hurdle in the semifinals in Basel, Switzerland, this evening and then take care of the other semi winner between Russia and Spain on Thursday in the grand finale on Sunday. (click for article)

From the bouts of cheering I hear from my balcony in Istanbul, the game isn’t over yet. The whole city is buzzing. The Bosphorus bridge is outlined in red lights and occasionally flashes like a crazed fan. A few streets down, someone has set a big TV on a chair on the sidewalk, attached to a long extension cord. A groups of neighbors have set up folding chairs and a small table on the opposite sidewalk. To watch the game, click here.

Turkey just shot its first goal and the whole city went wild, boat horns honking, people roaring from their balconies and windows. On TV at the game Turkish president Abdullah Gul jumped in the air and his wife fell into someone (else’s) arms. So much for all those debates about whether a pious Muslim should shake someone’s hand.

OK, four minutes later Germany shot a goal. It’s very exciting.

Germans 2, Turkey 1

3 1/2 minutes to go and Turkey scores another GOOOOL!! Outside imagine 12 million Istanbul inhabitants shouting, honking….

oh oh Silence. Germany scored a last-second goal. Game over. The Bosphorus Bridge is blue now. A sad bridge.

Great game, though! The BBC commentators raved over Turkey’s performance, even though they didn’t win in the end.

On a humorous note, from Burak Bekdil’s column in Today’s Zaman:

An imam in some remote town of Anatolia took the mosque’s microphone shortly after Turkey defeated Croatia and began to say an after-midnight ‘funeral prayer.’ “Croatia has passed away,” he announced to the townspeople who were anxious to learn which fellow had died. So we even had a funeral prayer for Croatia because we beat them in football. Could be a good starter for interfaith dialogue!

On a distressing note:

Sadly, around the country several children were wounded by stray bullets when men fired guns in the air to celebrate, more than 30 people injured so far after the three victories. The prime minister has spoken out and asked people to stop celebrating with guns.

For the game from the viewpoint of Turks living in Germany, click here.

The Army’s Action Plan?

Yasemin Congar wrote a hard-hitting Opinion piece in Taraf Daily on the Army General Staff’s Information Support Plan,  dated September 2007, a document unearthed by Taraf Daily that it claims describes a comprehensive plan of action to intervene in politics and civilian life.

From a Todays Zaman article: The plan went into effect in September 2007, according to the document, which was composed of a series of “measures” to be taken against the government, which the military sees as the source of a “religious reactionary movement.” The document defined its goal as: “Bringing public opinion into line with the TSK [Turkish Armed Forces] on issues the TSK is sensitive about, preventing the development of incorrect opinions about the TSK, ensuring the unity and solidarity of opinions and actions within the TSK.” The same introductory chapter issues a caveat, stressing the need to avoid, “conflict with other state agencies” and relaying “the image of intervening in daily politics.” The plan also emphasizes that it is necessary to “bring universities, presidents of the higher judiciary, press members and artists into line with the TSK because they have the power to foment public opinion, and to ensure that these individuals act in the same way as the TSK.”

On Friday afternoon the General Staff released a statement denying Taraf’s report, claiming, “There is no such official document approved by the commanding ranks in General Staff records.”

click here for Congar (published in Taraf Daily, translated by Zaman Today)

And Then What?

Who’s getting in line to replace Prime Minister Erdogan?

From an article by Goksel Bozkurt in Turkish Daily News:

The pending closure case against the ruling Justice and Development Party, or AKP, has triggered a drift toward alternatives in the political arena, with Turkey’s center right that has languished in recent times sniffing opportunity.

Many new and former political figures have begun making calculations, considering that Turkey may be faced with early elections. The common target is to deliver new blood to the “center right”, which the AKP has tried to assume the mantle of but could not manage, according to veterans of Turkish politics. The search for an alternative political formation to Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his companions, is associated with a long list of names ranging from Abdüllatif Sener to Mesut Yilmaz, Ali Müfit Gürtuna to Rifat Hisarciklioglu, Tuncay Özkan to the 10 December Movement, a group of politicians, unionists and scientists who believe in forming a new political concept.

[For more, click here.]